Comments on: Iowa Elections Market http://www.lessig.org/2008/01/iowa-elections-market/ Blog, news, books Sun, 15 Oct 2017 09:20:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.8.2 By: Colm Buckley http://www.lessig.org/2008/01/iowa-elections-market/#comment-14171 Thu, 21 Feb 2008 14:11:34 +0000 http://lessig.org/blog/2008/01/iowa_elections_market.html#comment-14171 It doesn’t look like there’s any evidence for his support having already peaked; his poll numbers continue to improve, as do his winning margins relative to polling data from the start of the year. I welcome the increased specificity of his speech from Houston (this may have been a reaction to the Clinton campaign’s accusations of vagueness, but no matter), and believe (and hope) that this will continue to drive his support. I’m afraid that “I wonder wheter his support has already peaked” smacks a little of concern trolling, or perhaps wishful thinking.

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By: Sam Gurgis http://www.lessig.org/2008/01/iowa-elections-market/#comment-14170 Sat, 19 Jan 2008 13:30:58 +0000 http://lessig.org/blog/2008/01/iowa_elections_market.html#comment-14170 Yes but I wonder wheter his support has already peaked. Whatever the outcome, most people would never have imagined that he could come this far.

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By: draeke http://www.lessig.org/2008/01/iowa-elections-market/#comment-14169 Tue, 08 Jan 2008 19:30:30 +0000 http://lessig.org/blog/2008/01/iowa_elections_market.html#comment-14169 An article about prediction markets:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/07/technology/07link.html?bl&ex=1199941200&en=28708f12c54bd08f&ei=5087

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By: Joe Buck http://www.lessig.org/2008/01/iowa-elections-market/#comment-14168 Mon, 07 Jan 2008 21:47:23 +0000 http://lessig.org/blog/2008/01/iowa_elections_market.html#comment-14168 Yes, this just about puts the nail in the coffin for claims that market-based approaches have any predictive value. All they do is average together the strongly held beliefs of their participants, who believed Hillary was the favorite right up to the instant that Obama won the Iowa caucus (even though he won by roughly the amount that the Des Moines Register said he would win by).

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By: Seth Finkelstein http://www.lessig.org/2008/01/iowa-elections-market/#comment-14167 Mon, 07 Jan 2008 14:47:37 +0000 http://lessig.org/blog/2008/01/iowa_elections_market.html#comment-14167 Proof that those things just summarize poll trends 1/2 :-)

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