• http://sethf.com/ Seth Finkelstein

    Proof that those things just summarize poll trends 1/2 :-)

  • Joe Buck

    Yes, this just about puts the nail in the coffin for claims that market-based approaches have any predictive value. All they do is average together the strongly held beliefs of their participants, who believed Hillary was the favorite right up to the instant that Obama won the Iowa caucus (even though he won by roughly the amount that the Des Moines Register said he would win by).

  • http://www.draeke.com draeke
  • http://www.sam-gurgis.com Sam Gurgis

    Yes but I wonder wheter his support has already peaked. Whatever the outcome, most people would never have imagined that he could come this far.

  • http://www.colm.buckley.name Colm Buckley

    It doesn’t look like there’s any evidence for his support having already peaked; his poll numbers continue to improve, as do his winning margins relative to polling data from the start of the year. I welcome the increased specificity of his speech from Houston (this may have been a reaction to the Clinton campaign’s accusations of vagueness, but no matter), and believe (and hope) that this will continue to drive his support. I’m afraid that “I wonder wheter his support has already peaked” smacks a little of concern trolling, or perhaps wishful thinking.