November 1, 2004  ·  Lessig

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Old news: The President of Zogby on Thursday predicted Kerry. That may be because of this new news: As its headline reports,

Young Mobile Voters Pick Kerry Over Bush, 55% to 40%, Rock the Vote/Zogby Poll Reveals: National Text-Message Poll Breaks New Ground

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This is the South Korea factor: Unpolled voters, with a radically different view from the norm. You can read Zogby’s press release here.

  • http://sethf.com/infothought/blog/ Seth Finkelstein

    “This is the South Korea factor: Unpolled voters, with a radically different view from the norm.”

    Huh??? The press release says the exact opposite:

    “The results of this text-message poll mirror what we’re seeing in our more conventional polls,” said John Zogby, CEO and president of Utica, N.Y.-based Zogby International.

  • lessig

    I mean Zogby’s results: they are more Kerry than the norm.

  • http://sethf.com/infothought/blog/ Seth Finkelstein

    But the factor has already been considered – that is, the tilt towards Kerry from younger voters is already known and considered in the conventional wisdom (matched of course, by a tilt towards Bush from different groups of other voters). In fact, the result of this poll is to *confirm* conventional polling, to show that there is not an unaccounted-for element from mobile phone users who weren’t previously polled (that is, the results are not in fact more pro-Kerry than is already known). So this isn’t a Dewey/Truman situation, where the telephone poll results were inaccurate because of not considering differences between people who had telephones and those who didn’t.

    Kerry has likely been picking up support over the last few days because often, undecided voters DON’T split 50/50 when they make their decisions, but favor the challenger rather than the incumbent.

  • lukethelibrarian

    Looks like Zogby took a hint from Cringely. Of course, the real question is this:

    The poll also found that only 2.3% of 18-29 year-old respondents said they did not plan to vote, and another .5% who were not sure if they would.

    If that proves even remotely close to true, it would be a significant shift from the 2000 presidential election.

  • Max Lybbert

    I’m very interested in how things turn out. I won’t be clinically depressed if Kerry wins. Both sides have a sizeable base, and it will come down to who bothers to vote. The polls have been entertaining, but nobody knows who’s likely to vote this time ’round, so there’s no telling how useful the polls have been.

  • Nate

    My prediction: The polling model will look seriously flawed when the results come in tomorrow, and all those organizations are going to have face up to a world where calling people on land lines is no longer representative. When we see tomorrow’s results, IMO, Gallup will look like a fool, and CNN along with it.

  • http://sethf.com/infothought/blog/ Seth Finkelstein

    http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=1&u=/ap/20041103/ap_on_el_pr/eln_election_rdp

    “One in 10 voters were casting ballots for the first time and fewer than 10 percent were young voters, hardly the groundswell that experts had predicted. Kerry was favored by both groups, according to the surveys conducted for The Associated Press by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.”

    Looks like no radical, revolutionary, oh-my-god-how-the-world-has-changed, factor there …

  • http://www.cellgateusa.com Satya

    Really good article. I have been following your blog for last 3 months. You have good knowledge
    on Mobile(cell phone) Industry and happenings. Please continue the good work. Thank you.