• Michael

    I’ve read so many polls in the last few months, I going to need a new prescription for glasses. According to the last odds I saw on the election (according to those “voting” with their dollars) Kerry was 5 to 1 to lose to Bush.

    The pollsters say it’s too close to call, the bookmakers say it isn’t. After this is over at least we’ll know who to listen to the next time.

  • Nate

    I have also been reading polls on a daily basis for weeks now, and I think I understand the failure of polling in the 21st century. Their assumptions are wrong this time, and I suspect it will be demonstrated clearly on election day. Kerry with 300+ EV. Not that close at all. I’m saying it here now.

  • http://www.bbcity.co.uk/user/Tom Tom Morris

    Perhaps Dave could include Badnarik next time, since the Libertarian candidate does have ballot access in 49 states. Compare with Cobb’s 28, Nader’s 35 and Peroutka’s 36. The LP are the most succesful third party. Such a shame Winer didn’t include them.

  • http://www.kennypearce.net Kenny Pearce

    I concur. Badnarik should most definitely have been included, as he’s likely to get more votes (and I’m sure has a stronger internet presence) than Nader. However, a minor correction: Badnarik is on the ballot in 48 states. The confusion may have arisen because he is also on the ballot in the District of Columbia (making a total of 49 ballots) and he is an eligible write-in in New Hampshire (no one is quite sure how on earth a Libertarian missed ballot access in New Hampshire, previously thought to be one of the most Libertarian states in the nation).

  • Jardinero1

    I will go with the bookies any day of the week.

    The problem with the most recent polls, especially in the state of Florida where 35% of eligible voters have cast their votes, is that the remaining cohort of eligible or likely voters is qualitatively different than the cohort of eligible or likely voters just two weeks ago. These eleventh hour polls are useless for making any predictions for that reason.

    Exit polling will be just as worthless since the cohort who went to the polls early is going to be different than the cohort who go on election day.

  • Eoin

    The bookies odds are 5/6 Bush and 11/10 Kerry.
    i.e Too close to call.
    I love if you could tell me where you can get 5/1 on Kerry

  • Nate

    Let me stand up and say I was wrong. The popular vote went precisely opposite of what I expected, and the EV not even close.

    It’s still suspicious that in 48 states the exit polling was accurate, but in Florida and Ohio it was quite divergent. Figures those would be the states. I hope we’re not in for another year of investigations and law suits only to find out in the end that the other guy won the vote but it’s too late to do anything about it (as happened in 2000 when Gore ultimately was found to win the Florida recount of *all* counties, but the news got buried under the CNN headline of “Bush wins recount” of only the few counties that Gore asked to be recounted). Still, with or without dirty tricks in those states, my prediction was wrong on the popular vote at least. Just wrong. I’m embarrassed, in many senses of the word.

    Can anyone confirm the facts being asserted here, or is this just wrong?:

    http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1293911&mesg_id=1293911

  • Max Lybbert

    Perhaps I should have posted my comment about the unreliable voters the Democrats relied on in this column, because it would be seen as less-inflamatory.

    And, for the record, I was incredibly worried when I went to vote in the morning. The line was already long then, and stayed long all day. Reports of a big turnout had me resigned to a Kerry win. And I was somewhat surprised that the under-30 crowd didn’t actually show up, when they seemed to be the loudest about how the election just couldn’t go to Bush.

  • http://www.woodenpicks.com IKE

    Eoin may be on the right track after all? Polling is simply more a time waster than being a useful tool. It all looks good in print & color, but only one really counts. The bookies were mention on the Rush Limbaugh program as the more reliable source these days.