August 27, 2004  ·  Richard Posner

In an article in WIRED called Insanely Destructive Devices, Larry Lessig discusses one of the greatest of possible techno-disasters, a terrorist-engendered smallpox epidemic. What gives it a technological dimension is that experiments have shown that genetic alteration of the smallpox virus, utilizing biotechnological techniques and equipment that are inexpensive and widely available, including in Third World countries, could make the “juiced up” virus not only more lethal than “ordinary smallpox” (which kills a “mere” 30 percent of its victims) but also, and more important, impervious to smallpox vaccines (and there is no cure for smallpox). Smallpox is highly contagious and because its initial symptoms are not distinctive, the disease could spread so far, for example by aerosolizers placed in major airports around the world, before it was discovered that quarantining would be instituted too late to be effective, even if health workers and security personnel could be induced, without vaccine protection, to enforce a quarantine. (There is a full discussion in Chapter 1 of my forthcoming book Catastrophe: Risk and Response.)

Lessig despairs of being able to come up with a technological or regulatory solution to this threat. Instead he suggests, with unmistakable reference to the foreign policy of the Bush Administration, that we should foreswear “our present course of unilateral cowboyism” which is “produc[ing] generations of angry souls seeking revenge on us”; we should “focus on ways to eliminate the reasons to annihilate us.” I don’t think so. The “reasons” are too various. Think of the Unabomber; what could we have done to remove his particular grievance? Think of the Islamist terrorists, for whom Western values, including the emancipation of women, are our greatest offense. And of course once we decide that the way to prevent terrorism is to change our way of life, we create new incentives for people who want us to change our way of life to resort to terrorism.

Lessig’s is a counsel of despair, and is premature. Although it is extremely difficult to prevent bioterrorism, it should not be impossible to reduce the risk of it substantially. Measures include an international organization patterned on the International Atomic Energy Agency (a solution the Administration has resisted), stricter restrictions on access to laboratory supplies of lethal pathogens and toxins–and such simple measures as not allowing airports to install aerosol fresheners, as they are doing–and nothing would be easier than for a terrorist to switch such a freshener with an aerosol dispenser containing a lethal pathogen.

Yet there is the standard, and very serious, dual-use dilemma. To develop effective vaccines against variants of lethal pathogens such as the smallpox virus, we need to create samples of these variants, these “juiced up,” bio-reingineered bacteria and viruses, and these sample are potential weapons and the techniques used to create them are techniques that bioterrorists could utilize. The more people we train to create new vaccines, the more people there are with knowledge that can be put to evil uses.

The solution to this dilemma is not obvious, but one possibility is to shift much of the research on new vaccines from open university facilities to closed university affiliates, such as MIT’s Lincoln Labs, which conduct classified research under more secure conditions that found or feasible in the ordinary university setting.

  • realish

    That seems a very shallow dismissal of what Lessig had to say. Yes, we couldn’t have prevented the Unabomber, but there aren’t very many Unabombers, are there? And the chances of a anti-technological wingnut in his cabin synthesizing weaponized smallpox are vanishing.

    There are lots more of the Islamist terrorists, and they’re better funded, but is it really our emancipation of women that causes them to come after us? I doubt it.

    Read Imperial Hubris, the new book by Anonymous CIA guy. He’s a bit of a loon, but his assessment of Al Queda (et al) is right on: They do not “hate freedom,” they hate very specific U.S. policies, and they want to change those policies. This is not an apocalyptic clash of worldviews, despite what the neocons might tell you. Islamicist terrorists are political players and they have particular political goals. Also, their current popularity is not a measure of the popularity of those goals, but rather of the climate of hatred and resentment in which they operate.

    There is plenty we could do without sacrificing our “way of life” to reduce the amount of hatred and resentment in the Islamic world. We won’t be able to dissuade the dead-enders, but we could reduce the support system they’re surrounded by and their endless flow of fresh recruits (and cash).

    I won’t get into the whole WoT debate here, but suffice to say, Lessig’s approach seems more hopeful to me than one that relies on technology to build ever higher, more sophisticated defenses around us. That sounds like more of a threat to our “way of life” to me.

  • Gregg Reynolds

    I’m shocked that a man of your obvious intelligence and sophistication has bought in to the dominant myth of the Bush administration (to mention only the most prominently myopics). To wit: “Think of the Islamist terrorists, for whom Western values, including the emancipation of women, are our greatest offense.” Your words. No offense, but have you ever read the Quran? Do you have any knowledge whatsover of Islamic thought? What do you really know about Islamic “values”? Yes, the terrorists (may) have different values than we do, but their main concern is the “dar al-islam”, the House of Islam, not us. They want to clean their own house – they couldn’t care less what we do in our house. The problem they have with us is not what we think, it’s what we do – “It’s the Policies, Stupid”. It’s the imposition of our values on their society that is their problem. Why in God’s name do we think it our responsibility to tell muslim countries how to live? If our presence and influence were in the Islamic world were to suddenly evaporate tomorrow, so would Islamic terrorism against the west. Political pragmatism may make it impossible for the politicians to acknowledge this, but I would expect better from people like you.

  • Steve Lincoln

    Judge Posner -

    Surely you don’t think that the solution to preventing high-tech terrorist attacks must be an either/or choice. Why can’t we pursue both technological means of reducing the likelihood or effectiveness of such attacks AND more prudent foreign policies that avoid deliberately provoking foreign nations/groups into become enemies of our country?

  • raoul

    Over the next hundred thousand years or so (we should always play to win and plan for success) there will come a time when an individual will have the capability to wreck mass destruction via a virus or nuclear weapon. This will happen. How will we deal with that threat? Unbelievably, I have no half concocted answer to offer. However, whatever we choose to do, we should at least conduct ourselves with honor and dignity, as opposed to promoting democracy with laser guided weapons and the oppression of the masses.

    To tie this into the IP debate. We brought down the Soviet Union, in large part, with our pop culture. Look at the videos of the kids tearing down that wall. They had on leather jackets and Metallica t-Shirts. You can bet your last dollar that good ol� Lars Ulrich didn�t see any royalties from the tape traders who shared American music behind the iron curtain. At the end of the day, Islam doesn�t stand any better of a chance in defeating rock-n-roll than Christianity did. Digital rights management and the RIAA stand a better chance. Although, they are doomed to fail as well. But at what cost?

  • http://www.palookaworld.blogspot.com/ Palooka

    To the Terror Appeasers,

    Appeasment is the true recipe for promoting terror. Incentives promote behavior. The West has appeased and legitimated terorrists (e.g. Yasser Arafat) and we are now suffering the costs of those miscalculations.

    No doubt that the wars in Afganistan and Iraq have increased anti-American sentiment and provided new recruits to Islamist terror. This is obvious, and should not be relevant. The relevant question is if those wars will promote our long-term security. Of course, there is legitimate room for disagreement, but that is the proper question, not if we have infuriated the Islamofascists by promoting Western values in the Middle East.

    For those in the appeasement crowd (and there are sadly quite a few here harping on Posner) what you are really advocating, I think, is our withdrawal of support for Israel. Right? Is that what you mean when you quite cravenly imply America has brought this upon ourselves? That we should get out of their “house of Islam?”

    Best,

    Palooka

  • http://lonewacko.com The Lonewacko Blog

    Why can�t we pursue both technological means of reducing the likelihood or effectiveness of such attacks AND more prudent foreign policies that avoid deliberately provoking foreign nations/groups into become enemies of our country?

    So, we stop Hollywood from producing cinematic works of art, and we wall ourselves off from Muslim countries in order to prevent our “culture” from corrupting their societies? One wonders how much we’d have to do to stop being the Great Satan.

    Here’s an alternative: instead of talking to those who are willing to die, we talk to those who want to live. And, we take the latter-named people for a ride on on of our nuclear subs.

  • raoul

    At its heart, terrorism is a criminal justice issue, not a military one. That means due process. If you do not have due process, you will never eliminate more terrorists than you create. With due process we will probably suffer higher casualties in the short term. However, it is the only way to win. So, suck it up.

  • Dennis

    Islamist terrorists are apparently motivated by more than hate for Western values, including the emancipation of women. According to The 9/11 Commission Report, old fashioned political competition and perceived religious superiority motivate Bin Laden and al Qaeda. Chapter 2 of the Report, at page 51, asserts that Bin Laden and al Qaeda “hate” the United States and the American people not primarily for the influence of Western values but because “America has attacked Islam; America is responsible for all conficts involving Muslims. Thus Americans are blamed when Israelis fight with Palestinians, when Russians first with Chechens, when Indians right with Kashmiri Muslims, and when the Philippine government fights with ethnic Muslims in its southern islands.” The Report explains that al Qaeda’s animus is not not just limited to Western values but with the “barbarism, licentiousness and unbelief [in Islam]” that in al Qaeda’s view infects many people including Muslims.

  • Brooks

    Throughout its history Islamist culture has never voluntarily peacefully coexisted with its neighbors and it never will. It takes genuine arrogance to assume that after a millennium and a half of searching, modern western man has finally discovered the key to peaceful coexistence with Islamists. The war will be over when they say it’s over and that sentiment is not found in the literal words of their God from whom Islamists take direct orders. Mere mortal reasonable persuasion is ineffective in dealing with a party on a mission from God. Moreover, deadly force only deters those Islamists actually killed by it. It is ineffective upon third parties who have already incorporated their own deaths into their plans. Given these terms, an offensive preemptive stance is our only reasonable choice. Would I prefer other terms? You bet I would. Should the institutions and people in our society on the front lines of this battle bow to such wishful thinking? Not for a minute.

  • Anonymous

    “Throughout its history Islamist culture has never voluntarily peacefully coexisted with its neighbors and it never will. “

    Neither have we. So what. Don’t be such a coward. WHOOOOOOOOOOO. Let’s all be scared of the Islamists.

    �To the Terror Appeasers�

    We�re Americans, we have defeated every army, every group of people and every culture that has ever stood in our path. The only real danger to us, is us.

    I say: �To Cowards Who Are Actually Scared of The Terrorists.�

    If you want to wet your pants every time a bomb goes off and start talking about giving away our freedoms (giving away our freedoms to two bit oil hounds, who haul off and attack third world countries, with fifth rate armies, no less) then you have a serious problem, as any good American would never sell away his freedoms for some ill-defined, illusory notion of security. We have to a least buy into some of the imagery, i.e. �home of the brave.�

    What are you so scared of? 60 million people died in WWII and you�re scared of terrorists. The entire tactic could not have taken more than 10 thousand lives total. We successfully took over an entire continent, killed everybody in it, defeated the Wehrmacht (twice) and dropped nuclear weapons on urban metropolises just to see what they would do. Terrorists? LOL!!! Please . . .

  • Humphrey

    We�re Americans, we have defeated every army, every group of people and every culture that has ever stood in our path.

    Not to mention a good few who had never stood in ‘our’ path. Americans complain about terrorists when they are on the receiving end but forget their support for General The in 1954 and funding the IRA during the ’70s & ’80s.

    Hypocracy ‘r us

    (I think I’ll go and watch The Passion again.)

  • dub spencer

    there is some bashing going on, mainly on “appeasers” and on “islamists”; I’d like to counter that:

    for an unprecedented timespan, there have not been any debts cleared to 3rd world countries, previously known as “the colonies”. billions are drawn from growing the wealth of these nations, which is the best known way to support peace (the rule).

    of course, that does not include saudi arabia, the homeland of osama bin laden. (of course, its wealth also prevents the US from attacking, instead targeting the taliban exercise in afghanistan.) should that exception be attributed to islam? or is there no exception at all, just the difference between war and terrorism (both contrary to peace, ie. not an exception, but a general failure of the rule, like with the unabomber)…

    now we are seeing the war against terrorism (both international and tyranny) – how about counter-terrorism: to drop a cruise missile into the kaaba might be better targetted at the purported enemy.

    conclusion: the islamic connection is just hogwash. the american army only succeeded in grenada, it failed in kabul, and it fails in iraq.

    PS:

    when in medieval europe the roman church oppressed most any science, moslems carried on antique studies, and releayd indian knowledge too to later europeans. how does this reflect on the islam?

    barring of the head scarf for teachers in some european contries happens at the same time, teenage girls dresses are publicly considered too sexy for their male teachers and comrades. how does this relate to the superior freedoms of women living in the 1st world?

  • Anonymous

    Think of the Unabomber; what could we have done to remove his particular grievance?

    How about not given him a copy of Earth in the Balance?

  • Brooks

    RE: posted by [] on Aug 28 04 at 9:49 PM

    Dear Nameless,
    The more significant fear with terrorism, over and above the products of its cowardly acts, is that a vocal minority of Americans excuse them, sympathize with them, and attack all who would defend themselves against terrorism by resorting to invective, ad hominem and other hysterical fallacies. Moreover, that a great number of these gonzo flamists cloak themselves in robes of a profession imbued with the defense of rationality is grounds to head for the hills. Terrorism is a concern, but no more than a symptom of the real danger, politically correct fascism. I blame the instructors who told these kids that shouting down the opposition was a form of reasonable discourse.

  • Matthew Saroff

    I’m sick to death of these, “EEK Smallpox and the Plague Chicken Littles.”

    You need some VERY well trained people, and a P4 lab to do this, and terrorist don’t have this.

    BW on the cheap is where we should worry.

    How about: Buy a plain ticket to various parts of Asia or Africa.

    Get cultures of Hoof and Mouth.

    Distribute at state fairs and feed lots.

    You would shut down agricultural exports for months, and meat exports for about a year.

    Cost is less than 20K, and you don’t need sophisticated delivery (H&M is tremendous contagious, and does not infect people).

    Actually, I find this more likely from Earth First than al Queida though, as it would hit factory farms hardest.

  • Anonymous

    Yo, Palooka and Lonewacko -

    You missed the point. When I say that the US should try to avoid provoking other nations and groups, I wasn’t talking about US culture. I mean that we shouldn’t be so arrogant as to presume that all oil resources in the Middle East are ours for the taking (Iraq) or to bully Middle East nations into giving us military bases on their soil, particularly in areas that Muslims deem holy (Saudi Arabia and Iraq). A little mutual respect goes a long way. The SonofaBush and his owners have none. (and deserve none from us).

  • Anonymous

    “What gives it a technological dimension is that experiments have shown that genetic alteration of the smallpox virus, utilizing biotechnological techniques and equipment that are inexpensive and widely available, including in Third World countries…”

    Smallpox was eradicated in the third world last, and the fatalities from epidemics there were higher, for fairly obvious reasons. A smallpox pandemic wouldn’t be a precise as a nuclear bomb (you could expect outbreaks worldwide), and would probably hit Arabia harder than the US.

    Imagine you’re a government official and your job is to contain GE-smallpox in your country. Would you rather be in the US, able to call on it’s federal agencies and resources, China with it’s state apparatus; or would you rather
    be a warlord in Southern Afganistan?

    Yeah, thought not. No terrorist organisation is trying to wipe out it’s own culture.

    I’m not saying that nobody will ever use a bio-weapon like GE-smallpox, but I am saying that Islamic Terrorists would be far from my first choice to use it.

  • raoul

    � all oil resources in the Middle East are ours for the taking.� Actually, in tying the discussion back into the property issue, technically, the oil does belong to the US and British firms who purchased leases and developed the oil fields. Without the west, the oil would not have been found and noone would have wanted to buy it in the first place.

    �the islamic connection [with terrorism] is just hogwash.

    Not really, there is a legitimate cultural war going on. Islam is where Christianity used to be and needs to be modernized. I am just in favor of fighting it with Mtv and ipods instead of with a land war in Asia.

    Democracy is much more likely to take root via revolution as opposed to imperial conquest. Japan and Germany were exceptions not the rule. Japan had already spent 100 years imitating America anyway. That�s why they built an army and started invading other countries, to be like us and the British. German already had a Democracy.

  • rbmp

    “Think of the Islamist terrorists, for whom Western values, including the emancipation of women, are our greatest offense. “

    You forgot to add “arrogance”, US being at the top for this kind of attitude toward the rest of the world.

  • http://www.mikearagua.com/ Mike

    Lessig’s article is reminiscent of Kurt Vonnegut’s Cat’s Cradle (1963?) and good ol’ ice nine. piece of cake.

    Vonnegut still writes at age 81. His most recent article bashes the W administration for other reasons.

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